In a report released by Realtor.com – which moved their headquarters from California back to Austin – they predict that Texas could surpass California in population by the year 2045. The projection reveals important demographic and economic trends that will shape the future of each state.
Texas Population Growth: a Deep Dive
Realtor.com’s report, based upon proprietary and U.S. Census Bureau statistics, projects that Texas population will reach 42,000,000 by 2045. That is a significant 35% growth from its current population (approximately 31,000,000). Lone Star State experienced a remarkable growth in population, adding more than four million new residents from 2013 to 2023. Texas has gained 562,941 additional residents from July 20,23 until July 20,24. This represents an annualized increase of 1.8%. Florida and District of Columbia are the only other states that have experienced a faster growth.
The Census Bureau reports that between July 2020 and July 2024 the population of Texas will increase from 29,1 million people to 31,3 million. This represents an almost eight percent growth in only four years. The population explosion can be attributed a number of factors.
COVID-19, and its associated health restrictions, played an important role. Texas has less strict regulations than many Democratic-led States, which prompted internal migration. Realtor.com reported that in 2019, around 20% of its home buyers were from outside the state. By April 2023 this number had increased to 33%. The migration of Californians to Texas is a trend that has been dubbed ‘Texafornia. According to the *Texas Realtors’ 2024 Texas Relocation Report*, roughly 102,000 Californians relocated to Texas in 2022 alone.
The analysis by Realtor.com of Census Bureau statistics identified several main reasons why Californians choose to relocate to Texas.
- Climate: Of those surveyed, 37% said that they would like to change the climate.
- Employment: 36 % relocated to take up a new position or transfer.
- Homeownership – 31% of people would rather own their home than rent one.
- Job Market: 10 percent of respondents were motivated by job losses or searches for work.
The concern about the rising crime rate in California has also played a role. FBI statistics show that California’s murder rate increased by 30% between 2019-2020, while Texas Department of Public Safety numbers reveal a 4% decrease.
Texas Economic Boom Fuels the Population Surge
Statista’s data shows that the Texas economy outperformed America as a nation in the last few years. The state economy shrank by 1,8% due to the pandemic of coronavirus in 2020, but this was still less than the 3.5% national decline. Texas’ economy grew at a rapid pace: 5.9% by 2021, then 3.9% by 2022 and 7.4% by 2023.
Many major corporations including Chevron, Charles Schwab Corp and others have relocated corporate headquarters out of California and into Texas because it is a more business-friendly state with a lower cost. Elon Musk, citing his disagreement with California governor Gavin Newsom’s policies, announced in July 2024 the relocation of X’s (formerly Twitter) headquarters and SpaceX to Texas. Musk expressed dissatisfaction in a Twitter post on X. He stated that this was prompted because of policies that affect families and businesses. Musk, who is now an ally of Donald Trump, heads the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency.
Realtor.com reports that the Texas housing industry is remarkably strong. It will account for 15 percent of all U.S. home building approvals by 2024 despite only representing nine percent (9) of the population. This has resulted in lower median property prices; as of December 2024, the median list price for a property in Texas was $360,000—around $40,000 below the national average.
Texas’ growing population: political implications
Texas’ growing population is already translating into greater political influence. The state has gained two extra seats in the House of Representatives, and received two more Electoral College Votes following the U.S. Census 2020. If the Lone Star State continues to grow faster than the nation, its political influence will increase.
Democrats have historically hoped demographic changes, especially the increase in Hispanics, would help make Texas more competitive. The 2024 election showed that the Republican candidate made gains among Hispanics as well as Black voters, showing political trends do not always follow demographics.
The success of Republican-controlled states like Texas and Florida contrasts with the relative stagnation of some Democratic states. Florida and Texas both experienced increases in population of approximately 1.9% and 1.6 % respectively for the year ended July 2022. California, New York and Illinois all saw declines.
Texan nationalism has achieved significant victories. For example, the Republican Party of Texas declared that legislation calling an independence referendum was a “legislative priority” for the upcoming session of the Texas Legislature.
Culture Transformation in Texas
Texas has experienced profound cultural and demographic shifts. U.S. Census 2023 figures revealed Hispanics were Texas’ biggest single demographic group by July 2022. This was compared to white non-Hispanic Texans who accounted for 39.8% of the population. The demographic shift has also been marked by the influence of Spanish-speaking cultures from Mexico and other Spanish speaking countries.
Texas’ population is aging as well. The Texas Demographic Center projects an increase of 88% in the number Texans 65 years and older between 2023-2050 and a rise of 57% in those 45-64. The state’s economy, culture and political landscape will be shaped by these age-related trends.