According to reports, Moscow has intensified its attempts to take control of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast. This is a strategic city which forms the southernmost part of Ukraine‘s “fortress Belt”.
The Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) Ukrainian military analyst believes that the redeployment of Russian forces in Toretsk as well as the eastern half of Pokrovsk shows an intention by Russia to exert pressure against Kostyantynivka.
Kostyantynivka Strategic Importance and “Fortress Belt
Kostyantynivka has a significant role in Donetsk because it is located within Ukraine’s “fortress line”, a defensive barrier that’s crucial to the region. ISW believes that Russia’s emphasis on capturing cities in this belt indicates a potential commitment to the war, which raises concerns over the prospects of lasting peace.
The ISW notes, however, that Russia may not be able to maintain a multiyear offensive against the “fortress belt”, along with other operations.
Understanding Ukraine’s “Fortress Belt”
This belt is approximately 50 km long (31 miles), and it includes Slovyansk and the surrounding cities Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka. The line is Kyiv’s main defensive structure within the Donetsk Oblast. By April 2024 these cities would be located anywhere between 7.5 miles and 18 kilometers from front lines.
Kostyantyn Mashovets is a Ukrainian analyst who reported via Telegram on the recent redeployment of units from Russia’s 20th Motorized Rifle Division, including the 242nd and 255th motorized regiments and 163rd tank regiment, to Toretsk, eastern Pokrovsk.
Mashovets suggests that this redeployment is aimed at flanking Ukrainian troops defending the southern part of Kostyantynivka between Alexandropol, and Tarasovka with the aim of encirclement, and ultimately defeat. He believes this could lead to a two-pronged breakthrough towards Stepanovka – Berestok – Pleshcheyevka – Yablonovka, followed by a coordinated assault on Kostyantynivka from both that area and Chasov Yar.
ISW estimated on 16 February that Russian forces east of Pokrovsk, near Vozdvyzhenka, are about 22 km south of Kostyantynivka. Those near Toretsk were approximately 11 kilometers from Kostyantynivka. The ISW estimated that Russian forces may be able to reach Kostyantynivka’s southern fringes as early as May 2025.
ISW believes that, despite Russia’s potential gains, it will “unlikely be” possible for Russia to collapse in total and capture the “fortress Belt” before 2025.
The Situation from Different Perspectives
Iuliia Medel, former spokesperson of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, made a statement on X, formerly TwitterIn spring or summer 2025, Russia may shift its offensive emphasis to Kostyantynivka – the southernmost fortified defence line of Ukraine in Donetsk Oblast. Redeployment in large numbers of Russian soldiers indicates that the Russian military is targeting Kostyantynivka next.
The political analyst Giorgi Reishvili has commented on X.: “Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk area have slowed over the past two months… Russian forces are attempting to bypass the city and cut off its supply lines. They are primarily aiming to control the main logistical routes leading to and leaving Pokrovsk. This includes T0504 Highway.
Future Implications, Uncertainties and the Impact of Climate Change
Uncertain is the impact that Russia’s offensive effort on future negotiations for peace between Ukraine & Russia. Moscow’s troop redeployments will also have an impact on both the timing and future prospects of these negotiations.