A recent study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies shows that the Russian inventory of battle tanks could be depleted as soon as next year, if the rate at which they are losing their main battle tank in the conflict in Ukraine continues. The assessment shows the high cost of Vladimir Putin’s invasion in military equipment.
How to Assess Tank Damage
IISS supports Ukraine’s claims regarding the losses of heavy equipment suffered by Russian troops. Tank shortages could have an impact on battlefield dynamics, and any future negotiations for peace. A reduction in the available Russian main combat tanks (MBTs), could affect Russia’s capacity to launch large-scale operations.
The key findings on Russian Equipment Attrition
IISS’s “Military Balance Report” estimates that Russian forces have lost 1,400 tanks and 3,700 infantry combat vehicles (IFVs), as well as armored personal carriers (APCs), in the past year. Russia, in total, has lost 14,000 vehicles since the beginning, which includes MBTs (multi-purpose tanks), IFVs (infantry fighting vehicles), and APCs.
In order to mitigate the losses from these storage facilities, Russia is reactivating older equipment of Soviet origin. According to the report, Moscow was able to produce and restore over 1,500 BMPs in 2024 and approximately 2,800 APCs and IFVs. The condition of the stored equipment, however, is in question, and could limit Russia’s capacity to compensate for attrition.
Bastian Giegerich is the Director General and Chief Executive Officer of IISS. He stressed that Russia can’t offset equipment losses indefinitely by simply refurbishing vehicles. According to him, Russia may exhaust all of its MBTs that are operational for offensive operations by the year 2026 if attrition rates continue.
The report acknowledges that Ukrainian forces are under strain due to troop shortages and attrition. Ukraine focuses more on developing and deploying unmanned aerial vehicle (UAVs), which include one-way assault drones to hit targets in deep Russian territory. The shift in focus highlights how modern warfare is evolving and drone technology’s importance.
Expert Perspectives On Russia’s Military Capabilities
Bastian Giesegerich IISS Chief Executive and Director General stated: While the Russian defense industry is resilient, current production and refurbishment rates will not be able to offset battlefield losses indefinitely. The IISS also stated that “Russia will have insufficient main battle tanks for offensive operations after early 2026, if they maintain the same operating tempo as 2024 and continue to suffer the same losses.”
The Future of Military Budgets and Their Strategic Impact
IISS’s analysis shows a substantial increase in Russian spending on military equipment despite significant losses. Russia’s real military expenditure will grow by approximately 42% to reach $145.9 Billion in 2024. In purchasing power parity terms (PPP), this equates to approximately $462 billion, which is more than the total military expenditure of all European countries in 2024. The sustained investment shows Russia’s dedication to military goals, despite the significant equipment losses in the conflict with Ukraine. For a long-term assessment of this war, it is important to know the number of tanks in Russia, how economic sanctions affect them, and what the Western military has done for Ukraine.