China grapples with declining marriage and birth rates: A call for policy changes?
**Why This Matters:**
China’s demographic is changing as couples put off or skip having children, and marriage rates are declining. Over the past 12 months, there were only 6.1million marriages registered. That’s a drop of 20% over the previous year. The combination of these trends and a rapidly aging population has policymakers concerned about China’s economic future. This decline is attributed to a number of factors, including a demanding work schedule, the prolonged downturn in real estate, an increasing cost-of-living in large Chinese cities and changing values among younger adults.
**Understanding the Challenges:**
Currently, China mandates a relatively high minimum marriage age – 20 for women and 22 for men. Chen Songxi is a statistician who serves on the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. He has suggested lowering the marriage age from 20 to 18 in order to align it with the norms of most developed nations. This proposal, reported in the *Global Times*, emphasizes that the change would be optional, intended to broaden opportunities for young people, capitalize on reproductive potential during the peak fertility window, and conform to international norms.
Chen also advocates for the removal of all restrictions regarding the number of kids a couple may have. This is a move away from the old one-child and two-child policies. He also supports the national implementation of policies that are already being tested in certain regions. For example, monthly cash subsidies for each child. Based on the projections, he believes China has only ten years for these policies to be implemented effectively.
Beijing changed its policy on one child in 2016 and allowed two kids initially, then three children in 2021. However, this policy change has not had a significant impact on family planning amongst young couples. Xiujian Penng, a senior researcher at Victoria University’s Centre of Policy Studies, in Melbourne, Australia, argues that lowering marriage age will have a minimal effect.
Peng says that while lowering the marriage age may increase the number married couples in China, it doesn’t address the main reasons for Chinese youth delaying marriage or childbirth.
Peng proposes a holistic approach to make family life appealing. This includes financial incentives, housing assistance, lower living costs, flexible working arrangements such as shorter work hours or remote work, and legislation that combats gender discrimination at work. It is especially important because women are often discouraged from having children by concerns over career failures or unequal opportunity.
**Expert Perspectives:**
Even lowering the age for marriage from 18 to 18 won’t help boost fertility rates, as people are used to getting married young and having kids later. China’s first marriage age in 2020 will be 29,4 years old for men, and 28 years for women. It is expected to continue being delayed as Taiwan, South Korea, and other countries have done.
**Looking Ahead:**
China’s overall fertility rate, measured as the number of children expected per woman, experienced a slight increase last year – the first rise in eight years. It is believed that the increase was largely due in part to the easing of strict anti-pandemic policies by late 2022. Experts do not believe that this temporary rise in birth rates is a sign of a long-term change. In order to tackle the root causes of Chinese youths’ marriage and family-planning decisions, policy and cultural changes are required.