America’s opponents are increasingly holding U.S. residents to force Washington into favorable deals. The “hostage diplomatic” trend is being used by countries like Russia and Belarus in order to achieve their strategic goals and advance their politics, warn experts. Experts are increasingly concerned about the long-term effects on U.S. travel and resident abroad, as well as international relations.
The recent exchanges have raised awareness of this practice. Moscow in particular has actively traded Americans detained for Kremlin-interested individuals. They include:
* **Alexander Vinnik for Marc Fogel:** The exchange of the alleged crypto kingpin, Alexander Vinnik, for the American teacher, Marc Fogel, who faced drug charges in Russia.
* **Viktor Bout for Brittney Griner:** The release of American Basketball player, Brittney Griner, who was detained on drug charges, in exchange for arms dealer, Viktor Bout.
* **Vadim Krasikov for Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan, and Alsu Kurmasheva:** Discussions surrounding the potential release of convicted Russian assassin and intelligence agent, Vadim Krasikov, in return for *Wall Street Journal* reporter Evan Gershkovich, Marine veteran Paul Whelan, and Russian-American journalist Alsu Kurmasheva.
Meanwhile, Belarus is also reportedly considering the release of political dissidents, potentially including U.S. citizens, in exchange for sanctions relief, according to reports from *The New York Times*. The situation involving Belarusian American Yuras ziankovich illustrates the interplay of domestic political repression with international leverage.
Dangers of Hostage Diplomacy
Danielle Gilbert, a Northwestern University assistant professor who consults Western governments regarding hostage retrieval, says that this exchange could lead to more detentions. The detention of U.S. nationals by authoritarian governments may seem like a cheap way for them to get concessions out of the United States. This structure of incentives creates a precedent which could potentially lead to the proliferation of hostage diplomatic tactics used by other countries to gain leverage on Washington.
Gilbert noted a new dynamic in the exchange of Vinnik with Fogel. He suggested that the U.S. might have made unheard-of policy concessions for the American’s freedom. It remains to be seen what long-term consequences the United States will have on its negotiating strategy and power.
Belarus Adopts the Same Strategy
Belarus is reflecting the tactics of Russia by considering the exchange of economic aid for the release of U.S. political prisoners and citizens. Christopher W. Smith, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of state for International Affairs and a Deputy to Lukashenko in Minsk is reported as having visited Minsk. This visit signals that these negotiations are serious. As part of any potential agreement, the potential for easing sanctions against Belarusian banks, and on potash exports (a key ingredient in fertilizer), is being discussed.
## Contrasting Approaches: Biden vs. Trump Administrations
Viktor Kovalenko is a Ukrainian Journalist who highlights how the Biden Administration and Trump Administration have different approaches to handling the exchange of prisoners. Biden’s administration focused primarily on recovering hostages, without having to compromise key positions such as NATO, sanctions or Ukraine. The exchanges have mostly involved the swapping of Americans with Russian opposition leaders for criminals and spies.
The Trump administration may have shifted its priorities in the Fogel/Vinnik deal, putting the release of Americans detained above all else. This could be a sign of a new policy that prioritizes the release of Americans at any cost. Foreign policy experts are debating how this will affect international relations in the future and what it means to use hostage diplomacy.
Emily Ferris of the RUSI London think tank, who is also a senior research associate, believes the Vinnik-Fogel trade aligns itself with efforts made to facilitate peace negotiations with Putin in regards to the conflict in Ukraine. Some prisoners are released as part of a goodwill gesture that may lead to more strategic conversations.
As it stands, several American citizens are currently detained in Russia or Belarus. They include:
* **Russia:** Stephen Hubbard, Travis Leake, Gordon Black, David Barnes, Robert Gilman, Eugene Spector, and Joseph Tater, among others.
* **Belarus:** Opposition politician and dual Belarusian-American citizen Yuras Ziankovich.
Is hostage diplomacy a sign of strength or weakness?
Kovalenko claims that Putin’s increased use of detentions to gain strategic advantage, especially following the invasion and annexation Crimea in 2014, is a sign of growing desperation. The Russian leader suggests that this dependence on “terrorist tactics” is a sign of weakness, not strength.
The growth of hostage diplomacy is a serious challenge to U.S. policy. It highlights the necessity of strategic, consistent responses in order to discourage future detention of American citizens overseas.