Spain‘s rising birth rate: Immigration reverses a decade-long trend
Several population experts attribute the shift to immigration. This is the first increase in birth rates for Spain since a decade. The positive shift comes amid global concern about the impact of declining birth rates on an aging population.
Spain’s Unique Approach to Global Population Issues
Many countries are facing population crises due to birth rates that are too low for them to sustain their current populations. The demographic change puts a strain upon the population of working age, which must provide for an ever-increasing number older people. Spain’s position appears to improve. Analysts attribute the increase in births to changes in the immigration and demographic policies of the country.
Spain’s Fertility and Birth Rate Details
According to Macrotrends, Spain’s fertility is 1.4. This represents an average of 1.4 births for every woman. According to Macrotrends, in most developed countries a rate of births equaling 2.1 is needed for population growth. Spain’s fertility has fluctuated very little over the last 4 years. From 1.39 to 1.4 between 2022 and 2024. But the number of actual births is increasing. The National Statistics Institute of Spain reports that the number of births has increased from 320.656 in 2023, to 322.034 in 2024.
After a decade of declines in Spain, this modest increase of 0.4 per cent marks the first rise in births in Spain in 10 years. This follows a consistent period of declining births including a drop of 2 percent in 2023.
Immigration and the Growth of Spain’s Population
Spain is a country that has a different approach towards immigration than many of its European counterparts. They see it as an economic strategy and a means to improve their welfare system.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez emphasized this perspective in a parliamentary address last October, stating that Spain must choose between being an open and prosperous country and risking becoming closed-off and impoverished.
According to Bank of Spain, Spain will experience a record-breaking influx of migrants in 2022. 1.1 Million people are expected to enter the country. The majority of the immigrants in Spain are young adults, who contribute significantly to the workforce.
According to the Ministry of Social Security and Migration, nearly 3,000,000 foreign-born employees make up 13 percent (13 million) of Spain’s total workforce. The Bank of Spain reports that immigrants accounted for approximately 85 per cent of the 433,000 positions created in the period between January-September of the preceding year.
William H. Frey a senior Fellow at Brookings Metro says immigrants help increase the population of working age, which is important in a time when retirees are on the rise. The younger population increases the number of pregnant women, resulting in more births. Frey suggests other industrialized, low-growth countries with aging populations, such as the U.S. can benefit from Spain’s example.
Both Frey and Cosco warn against simplifying the issue, pointing out that there are multiple factors at work.
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Other Factors Affecting Spain’s Demographics
Many factors influence the demographics of Spain, including the fact that many of the immigrants are from Latin America. Spain’s cultural connections and linguistic ties with Latin America and government efforts to improve immigrant integration and increase rights have all played a part.
The service-based economic model of Spain offers opportunities to Spanish-speaking South American immigrants.
The population collapse by 2100: Warnings
A report from the McKinsey global institute warns that despite the recent rise in births in the major economies, there could be a “population crash” by 2100.
According to U.N. estimates, the study predicts that these populations could decrease by up to 50% over 75 years. The decline in population is due to two-thirds living in countries where fertility rates are below replacement levels.
In most countries, the life expectancy rate has increased over the past 25 years, while fertility rates have declined in 90 percent.
Researchers point out that falling fertility rate contributes to a population imbalance. This results in less young people as well as an older, growing population who are dependent on the shrinking work force.
In the report, it is urged that countries should prioritize raising fertility rates. It also states that traditional work practices and social contracts must be changed. It also calls for higher productivity, more work per person, and effective migration strategies to avert depopulation—a societal shift without precedent in modern history.