Russian forces threaten to cut off Ukrainian supply lines in Kursk Region
There are reports that Russian forces have advanced in the west Russian Kursk area, which could threaten vital supply lines to Ukrainian troops across the border.
A pro-Kremlin blogger with a reputation for providing insights on developments in the field has reported that Russian forces have pushed “a deeply wedged” through Ukrainian defenses at Kursk. This could endanger Ukrainian supply lines, placing Ukrainian troops in Sudzha and surrounding areas at risk of ‘operational encirclement.
What This Means to You:
In August 2024, Ukraine began its incursion in Kursk. This bordering region is located to the northeast of Ukraine, Sumy. Although Ukrainian officials claimed the action was intended to distract Russian attention away from the fierce battles taking place in Donetsk, initially it presented President Volodymyr Zelensky with an opportunity for bargaining in the ongoing peace talks. This advantage may be lost if Russia retakes the Ukrainian-held land in Kursk. Ukrainian troops could also face encirclement if Russia regains this territory.
Important Developments
* Russia’s Defense Ministry announced on Wednesday that its forces had captured the Kursk villages of Orlovka and Pogrebki, both located north of Sudzha. They are near supply routes.
* Moscow claims to have established fire control over the road connecting Sudzha and the Sumy settlement of Yunakivka, effectively disrupting logistics for Ukrainian military personnel in Kursk.
* A pro-Kremlin military source reported that Russian forces had approached the route used to supply Ukrainian units near Malaya Loknya, which is south of Orlovka and Pogrebki, threatening operational encirclement. A second pro-Kremlin military source said that “up to 4,000 Ukrainian soldiers may be completely surrounded” if the remaining distance of 3.5 km is not covered.
Institute for the Study of War
According to recent reports, Russian forces have intensified their attacks against Ukrainian logistic lines in the Kursk area. It is reminiscent of the pattern that was observed when Ukrainian forces withdrew from Avdiivka near Donetsk to avoid being encircled after intense attacks were made on their supply route.
Early in February, the Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia had taken back at least 57% of the Ukrainian land held in Kursk. This is approximately 665 sq km. A senior Russian commander, however, claimed that Russia had recovered more than 800 sq km of land in Kursk last week, which represents 64 percent of area previously under Ukrainian control. According to Russian reports, elite forces have been deployed in Kursk. North Korean troops have reportedly also been sent to the area.
Statements:
* **Pro-Kremlin Shot Telegram channel:** claimed on Thursday that “there are about 1,000 units of Western equipment in the Sudzha area, which are being actively destroyed by the Russian Armed Forces.”
* **Ukraine’s military:** reported on Thursday that its forces had “repelled” 18 attacks in Kursk in the past day.
The Future:
It is still unclear how quickly Russia will be able to dislodge Ukrainian troops from Kursk. This situation may have a significant impact on the U.S. led ceasefire negotiations currently in progress. Kyiv could be forced to reconsider its negotiation position and strategy due to the potential for Ukrainian troops being surrounded and their supply lines disrupted.