In the first weeks of a hypothetical new term, Donald Trump‘s possible stance toward Europe has generated considerable conversation. It is marked by a directness which might not be well received by Washington’s European partners. Recent statements highlight a change in U.S. Foreign Policy, especially regarding the burden sharing in defense and approach to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
JD Vance, vice president of the United States, delivered an address at the Munich Security Conference. While not mentioning Ukraine explicitly, the speech outlined the priorities of the current administration. The Vice President said that Europe faces its greatest challenge “from within,” referring to issues relating to freedom of speech and democratic principles. Although he avoided major issues such as Ukraine or defense spending, his message was seen by many as a wake up call to Europe, warning it to assume greater responsibility for security. Some observers believed that this approach was primarily meant to appeal to a domestic market, and not to encourage cooperation with European Partners.
There’s a general expectation that the White House would address Europe’s longstanding dependence on the U.S. to provide the majority of its defense budget. European officials agree that they need to invest more in their own defense capabilities.
Uncertainty surrounds the Trump Administration’s possible strategy to achieve a ceasefire. The lack of clarity among European officials has led to confusion and concern. They had expected more concrete proposals during the Munich Security Conference.
There is confusion over Ukraine’s negotiations
The expectation of hearing a comprehensive plan for the Russia-Ukraine conflict was very high, but no concrete offer was made, which fueled fears that European nations would be excluded from the negotiation process. Keith Kellogg’s comments, as a potential U.S. ambassador for Ukraine and Russia suggested that European representatives would not have direct seats in the negotiations alongside Washington, Kyiv and Moscow despite assurances of their interests being represented, seemed to reinforce this concern. The European leadership was disappointed by this remark.
Trump’s new administration has a different approach, which could be a deliberate attempt to encourage European unity and increased defense spending. In a surprising move, the U.S. seems to have backed away from options that were previously considered such as Ukrainian NATO Membership and the aim of returning Ukraine’s borderlines prior to 2014. The possibility of American troops being sent to enforce a truce seems remote, potentially putting the burden on European forces.
Steve Witkoff and Mike Waltz will represent the U.S. in the negotiations. In the meantime, European leaders including British Premier Sir Keir starmer are gathering in Paris for a discussion on alternative strategies to Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron has stressed that European participation in peace effort is important.
There are conflicting reports about Ukraine’s involvement in the Saudi Arabian negotiations. While Kyiv’s officials posted photos that suggested preparations were being made for Volodymyr Zelensky to arrive, other sources suggest no meeting with Russia is scheduled.
Some observers are concerned that Trump’s potential agreement with Putin would be harmful to Ukrainian interest. They believe that the Munich Security Conference was a sign of a declining U.S. commitment towards Ukraine. Zelensky, the president of Ukraine has expressed his concern that the Kremlin will not honour any ceasefire conditions without strong security guarantees by its allies.
Trump made an announcement earlier in the month that he had spoken with Putin and agreed to negotiate a ceasefire. Zelensky could be informed of any developments. Zelensky, however, has insisted that he won’t accept any agreement negotiated without Ukrainian involvement.
European Defense Budget Increases are being called for
Munich Security Conference attendees were focused on the need to boost European defense spending. The Trump Administration reportedly proposed a target of 5% GDP, which is higher than NATO’s goal of 2%. However, European officials focused on the capability gaps, such as in air defense, missiles with long ranges and personnel rather than focusing solely on a percentage.
Mark Rutte, NATO’s Secretary General, acknowledged that a significant increase in the defense budget, above 3%, was needed. Some European nations have exceeded the threshold of 3%, including the Baltic countries such as Estonia and Lithuania.
But officials warned that increased spending for defense should not be borne solely by countries nearing Russia. Instead, they said, it was the duty of all Europe to enhance its collective security.