The geopolitical environment appears to have shifted, possibly in favor of Russia’s goals, as the conflict nears its third anniversary, which was sparked on February 24th, 2022 by Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation”. Putin justified his full-scale invasion at first by citing NATO’s expansion as a danger to Russia’s safety, saying that the infrastructure of the alliance was invading Russian borders.
Conversations about possible resolutions, in the midst of a war which has claimed tens and thousands of lives, suggest that concessions are being made that would align with Russia’s long-term objectives. In light of the engagement between former president Donald Trump and President Putin as well as statements by people like Pete Hegseth it appears that Russia is moving away from its goal to return Ukraine to pre-2014 boundaries or gain NATO membership.
Carlo Masala is a Professor at the Bundeswehr Universität of Munich. He asserts that Putin “wins this war” from his point of view, underlining the perception of a shift in the landscape of negotiations to Russia’s benefit. Alexei Pushkov, a Russian senator who is a Kremlin spokesman, has called the discussions “historic” and emphasized their importance in international politics.
Russian financial institutions are showing confidence in the Russian economy. The Russian stock exchange has shown resilience by soaring as a result of these events. Putin is consolidating his domestic power, suppressing any opposition and aiming at international organizations like the International Criminal Court. The ICC issued an arrest warrant on him.
What is the Question of Ukraine’s Territorial Integrity and Borders?
Putin’s claims to Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk in his essay of 2021 “On the Historical Unity of Russians & Ukrainians” are the foundation of Russia’s ambitions. Hegseth’s opinion that returning Ukraine back to its borders prior to 2014 is unrealistic and Trump’s announcements of imminent negotiations as well a ceasefire indicate potential acceptance of Russia’s territorial gains.
European officials reportedly were caught unawares by Trump’s engagement directly with the Russian President, raising concern over the future of Ukraine’s territorial autonomy.
NATO membership and security guarantees for Ukraine
Putin made it clear that he wanted to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Hegseth expressed a similar sentiment by highlighting the necessity of security assurances to prevent conflict from resuming, while also denying that NATO membership was a realistic option for Ukraine. The security of the entire region is at risk.
There is increasing skepticism about Europe’s willingness to take on greater responsibility in the security of Ukraine, as there are concerns that European support for Ukrainian forces may wane. Marko Mihkelson of Estonia expressed his concern for “a darker day” in Europe, highlighting the possible implications.
Keir Gilles, senior consultant at Chatham House warns, without credible guarantees of security from NATO or the U.S., a ceasefire may be only temporary, giving Russia enough time to re-build its forces.
Russia’s Resilience Economic Challenges
Russia’s stock exchange has shown resilience despite economic setbacks caused by international sanctions. Both the RTS Index and Moscow Exchange (MOEX), as well as the MOEX, have seen significant increases. The ruble is also strengthening against the U.S. Dollar.
Pekka Kallioniemi – a specialist in analyzing Russian misinformation – observed that Trump’s meeting with Putin had given a significant boost to the Moscow Stock Exchange, potentially reducing the threat of an economic crisis. Russia faces many economic problems, such as high inflation, and an acute shortage of workers, which are aggravated by the casualties that occurred in Ukraine, and other demographic factors.
Additionally, U.S. sanction and issues related to Russia’s “shadow fleet” continue to have an impact on its energy imports.
Foreign Relations and Domestic Politics
Alexei Navalny’s death anniversary is coming up soon. This will highlight the suppression of oppositional politics in Russia. Trump’s sanctions, which were recently imposed against the International Criminal Court, who issued an arrest warrant to Putin, are a sign of a shift in allegiance. This undermines the legal framework of international justice and its capacity to punish individuals for war crimes.
Tulsi’s Gabbard was confirmed as the director of US national intelligence. Her past comments, which many viewed as pro-Russian and a sign of a possible shift in US politics to Putin’s advantage have caused controversy.
Europe and the Future of the Conflict
Trump’s telephone call with Putin could have reshaped U.S. policies towards the Ukraine conflict. European nations are now concerned that they will be excluded from negotiations in the future and end up paying the most for post-war reconstruction and security costs. Marie Dumoulin and other experts believe that the West could lose its negotiating power with Russia if it excludes Ukraine from NATO membership, or shifts the responsibility of European security onto Europe.
Putin seems to have achieved a significant strategic advantage. However, this raises concerns about its long-term impact on Ukraine, European security and international law. In determining how the conflict will end, the coming months are crucial.